Thursday, April 25, 2013

Scott's '13 Official First Round Mock

I will introduce myself more later on but it's a pleasure to be invited by Derek to be a contributor to NFL Reverse. I am a native of Cleveland, Ohio and am a huge Browns fan; I'm also a follower of the Detroit Lions. You will see most of my articles focus on the Browns, Lions, and both the AFC/NFC North divisions. I was a two year starter on the offensive line at George Mason University, where I was an unanimous ICFF First-Team All-American, representing the Patriots.

I've done my best not to do 50 mock drafts this offseason, I have sat back, watched and waited. As a Browns fan, I've been more focused on the hope brought to the franchise by new owner Jimmy Haslam... and now his FBI investigation (the sad life of a Browns fan).

Here is my official 2013 NFL Mock Draft (note: trades are not considered):

  1. Kansas City: OT Eric Fisher (Central Michigan)
  2. Jacksonville: OT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M)
  3. Oakland: DT Sharrif Floyd (Florida)
  4. Philadelphia: OT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma)
  5. Detroit: DE Ezekiel Ansah (BYU)
  6. Cleveland: CB Dee Milliner (Alabama)
  7. Arizona: OG Jonathan Cooper (UNC)
  8. Buffalo: WR Tavon Austin (WVU)
  9. New York (Jets): DE Barkevious Mingo (LSU)
  10. Tennessee: DT Star Lotulelei (Utah)
  11. San Diego: OG Chance Warmack (Alabama)
  12. Miami: OT D.J. Fluker (Alabama)
  13. New York (Jets): QB Geno Smith (WVU)
  14. Carolina: DT Sheldon Richardson (Mizzou)
  15. New Orleans: DT Sylvester Williams (UNC)
  16. St. Louis: S Kenny Vaccaro (Texas)
  17. Pittsburgh: OLB Jarvis Jones (UGA)
  18. Dallas: S Jonathan Cyprien (FIU)
  19. New York (Giants): DE Bjoern Werner (FSU)
  20. Chicago: LB Arthur Brown (K-State)
  21. Cincinnati: RB Eddie Lacy (Alabama)
  22. St. Louis: FS Eric Reid (LSU)
  23. Minnesota: WR Justin Hunter (Tennessee)
  24. Indianapolis: CB Xavier Rhodes (FSU)
  25. Minnesota: ILB Manti Te'o (ND)
  26. Green Bay: TE Tyler Eifert (ND)
  27. Houston: ILB  Kevin Minter (LSU)
  28. Denver: S Matt Elam (Florida)
  29. New England: CB Johnathan Banks (MSST)
  30. Atlanta: CB Desmond Trufant (Washington)
  31. San Francisco: DE Cornellius Carradine (FSU)
  32. Baltimore: CB Jamar Taylor (Boise St)
I'm sure I'll be increasingly wrong as the draft goes on and trades will definitely be my undoing! As long as the Browns take Milliner, I will be happy!

First round mock draft

With the draft just hours away, let's compile another mock draft. This will probably be the 1,383,493rd mock draft this year (and hopefully the one that predicts every pick). Like most drafts, this draft will probably see its fair share of trades. So as an added element, not only will I be predicting picks, but trades as well. You can have millions of mock drafts, but if they don't include teams trading picks with other teams, none of them will be correct. Let's get this party started!

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan - I think Kansas city has done it's fair share of trying to trade this pick but will ultimately fail to produce a trade. Other teams may not deem any of the top talent in this draft worthy for the 1st overall pick. The Chiefs are engaged in discussions with the Miami Dolphins in a trade that would send starting left tackle Branden Albert to the Dolphins.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M - If the Jaguars want to succeed next season they'll need to protect their quarterback. Joeckel will not only be able to protect his quarterbacks blind side, but help Maurice Jones-Drew in the rushing game - adding to their strongest aspect of their offense.

3. Oakland Raiders: (Trading pick to Miami Dolphins): Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma - The dolphins could sit tight at where they're at and add a corner, or another tackle but they highly covet the former quarterback. If they want him they'll have to trade up to due his rising draft stock.

4. Philadelphia Eagles: Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon - This pick was a bit of a head scratcher. The Eagles let both of their starting corners go so Dee Milliner makes sense here. With Jordan being coached under current head coach Chip Kelly, the Eagles decide to scoop him up now. With todays NFL it seems that the teams having the most success with their pass rush are the teams rotating defensive lineman.

5. Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama - The Lions' best asset is their offensive passing attack. In order to get the ball back in the hands of Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford, they'll need to be able to turn the ball over on defense. Their Defensive line and pass rush is pretty solid, but they'll need some help on the back end of their defense. Milliner makes perfect sense with this pick.

6. Cleveland Browns: Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU - Barkevious Mingo could make sense here but I think the general consensus on Ansah is that he's a prospect with huge upside, though he'll have to shed a few pounds to be a stand up 3-4 OLB. Geno Smith could aslo make sense here, but with Jason Campbell on the team, that may not happen.

7. Arizona Cardinals: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama - The Cardinals weren't able to pass the ball or rush the ball that effective last season. Their offense was pretty much inept. They need some help up front in the trenches. Geno Smith could also make sense here, but the need for a solid offensive lineman is a high priority. They'll probably select a QB in a later round.

8. Buffalo Bills: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia - The Bills have expressed that they'd like to take Austin. It could be a ploy to have another team trade up and select him, but they truly do need another weapon in their air attack. Tavon Austin paired with CJ Spiller and Steve Johnson could be deadly.

9. New York Jets: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU - The Jets make Mingo their first pick. With Revis gone and their pass rush not being up to par, they need help in the pass rush department.

10. Tennessee Titans: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina - Adding a good quality offensive guard will help keep Jake Locker from scrambling so much and help to keep him up right. Not to mention they'll need a good offensive line to turn Chris Johnson back into CJ2K

11. San Diego Chargers: Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee - This could be a make or break year for Phillip Rivers. He can't do it alone, and hee'll need some help with the amount of talent at the position right now.

12. Miam dolphins: (pick traded to Oakland Raiders): Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida - Many teams in this draft could use additional draft picks. The Oakland Raiders did themselves a favor and were still able to  land their man.

13. New York Jets: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia - I didn't think the Jets would actually trade up to the 5th overall pick to select Sanchez years ago. I like Sanchez and wish him success, but the truth of the matter is he's struggled over the past couple of years. A new quarterback for the franchise after Sanchez's struggles is warranted. Maybe they don't pick a QB this year, but if Rex Ryan wants to save his job, he'll need some success with his offense.

14. Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah - The panthers are loaded on offense so the only logical pick would be on the defensive side. A corner or safety could make sense here, but I think they go with the best available player. That player is Lotulelei.

15. New Orleans Saints: Jarvis Jones,  OLB, Georgia - The Saints will look for defensive help with their first pick. That defensive help will be in the form of Jones.

16. St. Louis Rams: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas - Vaccaro has shown the ability to be a safety that can stuff the run, cover deep, and line up on slot receivers. The Rams would love to have a player with his versatility, though his 40 time of 4.62 at the NFL scouting combine was a bit of a disappointment. Never the less, the Rams could use his services in their secondary.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State - With the departure of Keenan Lewis to the Arizona Cardinals and Ike Taylor on the other side of 30, a cornerback makes sense with their first round pick. William Gay isn't the corner they want starting opposite Taylor so they look to improve their secondary with the addition of Rhodes. He's a bigger corner with good speed and can play in press coverage very well.

18. Dallas Cowboys: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri - The cowboys are changing their defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and they'll need a DT that can play in their defensive scheme. Sheldon Richardson is pretty athletic for the position with this pick the Cowboys will go defensive tackle.

19. New York Giants: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame - Alec Ogletree is still on the board and they could easily choose to draft him, but I think his off field actions will scare them away. Martellus Bennett decided to sign with the Bears and for as long as Eli Manning has been in New York, he's had a solid Tight End to be his security blanket. Eifert has preformed well in college, has good size, and has tested well at the combine. It appears that he'll test well with the G men as well.

20. Chicago Bears: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia - His off field woes are enough to scare teams away, but the Bears could use some athleticism at the LB spot. The signing of DJ Williams isn't enough to have the Bears not select a LB. Urlacher played safety before they turned him into a pro bowl LB. Ogle tree is also a converted safety and has produced in college footballs toughest conference.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama - The Cincinnati Bengals are sitting pretty on both sides of the ball. They could go safety with this pick, but the more pressing need is at the running back spot. Lacy may not have tested well in front of representatives from NFL teams, but he'll be the back that the Bengals are looking for.

22. St. Louis Rams: (Trading pick to the Atlanta Falcons): Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington - Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes are no longer part of their defense. They'll need a quality secondary if they want to make it back to the playoffs.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame - A linebacker that's actually a finalist for the Heisman Memorial Trophy? That can only be indicative of one thing, this kid must really be able to ball.

24. Indianapolis Colts: Robert Woods, WR, USC - Woods appears to be the second coming of Reggie Wayne, so why not have him learn all the intricacies of the position from Wayne himself?

25. Minnesota Vikings: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson - The Vikings will need an upgrade at the wide out position now that Percy Harvin has left for greener pastures.

26. Green Bay Packers: Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida Intl University - At this stage of the draft, there won't be any players that were as dynamic as Charles Woodson when he came out of college, but Cyprien is a safety that has the ability to cover a lot of ground and has good instincts to play the position.

27. Houston Texans: Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee - Since the Texans decided not sign their number 2  receiver, it only seems right that the Texans would pick a receiver at some point in the draft. Hunter could turn into a good number two for them. He has size and speed and just needs a little coaching to help him develop into a legitimate number 1 receiver.

28. Denver Broncos: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina - The UNC product is being pegged as a 3-technique defensive tackle due to his ability to get upfield quickly. I like how he works beyond the line of scrimmage, but many of those disruptions started with him lining up as a 0- or 1-technique.

29. New England Patriots: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State - It's amazing that Werner has slid so far in the draft. The patriots could go wide out here but will look for help at the WR position later in the draft. Werner is the best player available and it only makes sense for the Patriots to take him at this spot.

30. Atlanta Falcons (traded pick to St. Louis Rams): Keenan Allen, WR, California - The Rams are still looking to upgrade their passing attack. Allen is a physical receiver that may not necessarily be the fastest receiver, his physicality compensates for his lack of speed.

31. San Francisco 49ers: Margus Hunt, DE, SMU - Justin Smith can't man their D-line forever. Though  Hunt is still learning the position, his upside appears just as enormous as his stature.

32. Baltimore Ravens: Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State - Some will call Brown small for the position. I won't, and instead think Brown is one of the top talents in this entire class. He has speed to work to the sideline and aggression to take on and beat blockers.

Derek Stein's First Round Mock Draft

The 2013 NFL Draft is one of the hardest to predict, even in the first round. This draft class is filled with more talent than people believe due to the depth of talent. This mock draft is part of a competition with some of the other NFL Reverse writers, and includes potential trades. I know we're all looking forward to see how it all shakes out tonight at 8pm!

Welcome to Radio City Music Hall! With the first pick of the 2013 NFL Draft...

  1. ...the Kansas City Chiefs select: Eric Fisher - OT - Central Michigan
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Joeckel - OT - Texas A&M
  3. *TRADE* Arizona Cardinals (via OAK): Lane Johnson - OT - Oklahoma
  4. Philadelphia Eagles: Dion Jordan - OLB - Oregon
  5. Detroit Lions: Ziggy Ansah - DE - BYU
  6. Cleveland Browns: Dee Milliner - CB - Alabama
  7. Oakland Raiders (via ARI): Sharrif Floyd - DT - Florida
  8. Buffalo Bills: Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia
  9. New York JetsBarkevious Mingo - OLB - LSU
  10. Tennessee Titans: Jonathan Cooper - OG - North Carolina
  11. San Diego Chargers: Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama
  12. Miami Dolphins: D.J. Fluker - OT - Alabama
  13. New York JetsGeno Smith - QB - West Virginia
  14. Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson - DT - Missouri
  15. New Orleans SaintsJarvis Jones - OLB - Georgia
  16. St. Louis Rams: Kenny Vaccaro - S - Texas
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Star Lotulelei - DT - Utah
  18. *TRADE* Chicago Bears (via DAL): Alec Ogletree - ILB - Georgia
  19. New York Giants: Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
  20. Dallas Cowboys: Sylvester Williams - DT - North Carolina
  21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jonathan Cyprien - S - Florida International
  22. St. Louis Rams: Cordarrelle Patterson - WR - Tennessee
  23. Minnesota Vikings: Manti Te'o - ILB - Notre Dame
  24. Indianapolis Colts: Xavier Rhodes - CB - Florida State
  25. Minnesota Vikings: Datone Jones - DL - UCLA
  26. *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (via GB): EJ Manuel - QB - Florida State
  27. Houston Texans: DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson
  28. Denver Broncos: Bjoern Werner - DE - Florida State
  29. New England Patriots: Matt Elam - S - Florida
  30. Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Trufant - CB - Washington
  31. San Franciso 49ers: Margus Hunt - DE - SMU
  32. *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (via BAL): Matt Barkley - QB - USC
I believe that there will be a run on offensive tackles with the first 3 picks. From there, it's almost a toss up as to what will happen. This is by far one of the most unpredictable drafts so it was difficult to put together. It was tough leaving DJ Hayden out of the first round, but I just didn't see where he fit in anywhere in this mock. If any corner will drop out of the first round, it will be Hayden due to the fact that his injury gave us a smaller sample size of play than most of the other corners. It will be interesting to see what really happens, I'm expecting a lot of trades.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Why a Darrelle Revis Trade Should Happen

 
 
Arguably the biggest story besides the upcoming NFL Draft is what will become of Darrelle Revis. It appears as though the All-Pro corner's time in the big apple could be coming to a close, a prospect that has elicited a wide range of opinions from analysts and fans alike.
 
Although there are several possibilities as far as how this issue will pan out, there is one thing that is for certain: The Jets should trade Darrelle Revis.
 
At first glance, this seems counterintuitive. After their disasterous 2012 campaign, it seens as though the Jets can ill afford to let any talent walk out the door. And let's be clear here; we're not talking about just any talent. We're talking about one of the (if not the) best corners in the game, a true "shutdown corner" at a time in history where the term is almost nonexistant. And in today's pass-happy NFL, where receivers are allowed to roam the secondary untethered and quarterbacks are wearing figurative red jerseys, a marquee talent at corner is something that every team looks for.
 
And although Revis has just 19 career interceptions in his six-year pro career, this is often an attribute of a great corner. Quarterbacks are afraid to throw to Revis' side, opting instead to throw in the direction of the other corner a majority of the time. Revis doesn't get beat too often, at least not when healthy.
 
So why should the Jets give away Revis?
 
This has more to do with Revis' attitude and the Jets' ineptitude than anything else.
 
Revis is locked up in contract through the end of the 2013 season, and has made it clear that he is not a lock to return, what with constant holdouts and squabbles with upper management. So when you look at the situation, the correct course of action becomes obvious. They have no choice but to trade him. After all, why would the Jets let Revis walk away for free next year (or a mere compensatory pick) when they could trade him now and get much more for him?
 
It would be different if the Jets were contenders. But with the backward step they took last season, nobody outside of New York (and probably not even inside of it, for that matter) thinks that they even have a realistic shot at winning this year. They are a circus act whose faults were forgivable when the on-field success was there. But they have been exposed for what they are: a bad football team with countless distractions and several backup-caliber quarterbacks competing for the starting spot. 
 
Why would either party be against such a trade?
 
The obvious issue here is Revis' health. Revis makes a living with his change-of-direction skills and his speed, both of which could be compromised by the serious ACL injury he suffered in 2012. But we should assume in 2013 that any player who undergoes a procedure as commonplace as ACL surgery should be back and better than ever in short time. An injury that once ended promising careers (Gale sayers, anyone?) is now treated as little more than a broken ankle.
 
Obviously, selling the farm for a guy who is less than a year removed from knee surgery is something that has kept teams away from the prospect of making an offer. But Tampa Bay seems to have looked past that issue to see the big picture. A Bucs defense that ranked dead last against the pass in 2012 (297.4 yards/game) would benefit greatly from not having to worry about an entire side of the field. With the Tampa 2 defense in place, it would take some of the pressure off of Revis initially; in that scheme, safeties are largely placed in the most exposed position while corners are free to roam without having to worry about sticking on a man like glue. But Revis is a cerebral player who would be beneficial in any scheme.
 
Another reason why the Jets might be hesitant to give away Revis would be the Mike Wallace signing by Miami. With a deep threat like Wallace lining up against Jets cornerbacks twice a year, it would be nice to have someone who can match him, if not stride-for-stride, then close.
 
Overall impact
 
This Jets team is much further away from the playoffs than people give them credit for. Despite the swaths of media attention that this team gets, season after season, they will not go far this year and, although fans hate to admit it, the best thing to do is stockpile picks for the future. And a move could come soon with the Draft being a mere week away.
 
Hopefully GM John Idzik can do what his predecesor couldn't do: avoid the cat-and-mouse games and make the trade.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Sleepers of the Draft

Every year, we see talented players slide endlessly into the later rounds of the draft. Some may have had bad combines, suffered from injuries, or played for a smaller school causing them to remain relatively unkown. When given their opportunity, there are a handful of these late-round selections who burst onto the NFL scene and leave scouts saying, "How did we miss this guy?" It happens every year. We had Alfred Morris, Russell Wilson, and Vontaze Burfict reveal their talent of the biggest stage. As a 6th round pick out of small school Florida Atlantic, Morris finished 2nd in the NFL in rushing. Considered to be too short to be an NFL quarterback, Wilson was selected in the 3rd round and quickly established himself as one of the most efficient passers in the league this past year - helping to lead the Seahawks into the playoffs. Burfict was once considered a first round pick, but a bad combine and some negative reviews in the interview process caused his draft stock to plummet. However, he was still picked up by the Bengals as an undrafted free agent and never looked back once he got his opportunity as a starter - tallying over 100 tackles in his rookie campaign. Obviously there were more sleepers than just these three players, but these are some great examples of undervalued players who come up big at the next level. While the first round of the NFL Draft gets the most publicity, valuable picks in the later rounds of the draft help to build a team for the long haul. So who can your team pickup after the 1st round?


QUINTON PATTON - WR - Louisiana Tech

While the bigger receivers like Cordarelle Patterson and Keenan Allen have a lot of hype surrounding them as potential first round picks, Quinton Patton may be the best player in the draft that you've never heard of. At 6-foot 205 pounds, Patton is a quick footed receiver who is an excellent route runner with a knack for making big plays. In his two years as a starter at LA Tech, Patton came down with 183 receptions for 2,594 yards and 24 touchdowns. This small school stud is an aggressive blocker in the open field, and is a master at getting off of press coverage at the line of scrimmage. He uses his feet and hands well to move his defender at the line of scrimmage allowing him enough seperation to develop his route. I urge all readers to watch his game against Texas A&M, in which he tallied 21 receptions and 4 touchdowns:




DJ HARPER - RB - Bosie State

Boise State appears to be quite the running back factory, churning out 1st round selection Doug Martin (aka "Muscle Hamster") of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who had a solid rookie season. But before Doug Martin became the starter at Boise State, he had to play second fiddle to DJ Harper. Martin only got the starting job because Harper tore the ACL in his left knee two years in a row. While this will be red flag to many teams, he has the ability to be a decent back at the next level if he checks out medically. Once considered the fastest player on the Boise State squad, Harper has decent vision and an explosive burst when in the open field. He easily shakes off arm tackles, and his lateral agility make him tough to tackle in the open field. Harper will likely be a very late round selection in the 2013 NFL Draft, but reminds me a lot of DeMarco Murray:



Side Note:

Sitting behind DJ Harper this past season was freshman Jay Ajayi, who is a strong back with suprising lateral quickness and top end speed. At 6 foot 220+ pounds, it makes you wonder how Alabama passed up such a running back prospect. Look for him to have a big year as Boise State's feature back in the 2013 season. He has the talent and build to become a productive NFL back in the future:

Friday, March 8, 2013

With the 51st Pick, the Washington Redskins Select...


 One of these three players:
  1. Jonathan Cyprien - Safety - Florida International
  2. Darius Slay - Conerback - Mississippi State
  3. Menelik Watson - Right Tackle - Florida State

The Washington Redskins find themselves in a tight situation with free agency fast approaching - Tueasday, March 12th - and no cap space to work with. It will take some contract manipulating and possibly some unexpected releases to bring the Redskins under the salary cap (they are currently 3 million over cap). On top of that, the Redskins have no 1st Round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Considering these circumstances, it will be tough to address some of the issues on the roster. Many have expressed their concern with the performance of Tyler Polumbus at Right Tackle, Madeiu Williams at Safety, and both Corners in general. I would have to say that the biggest position of concern would have to be safety, as Madeiu Williams got beat often (to put it nicely). However, if any one of the players above is available when the Redskins pick in the 2nd Round, they are absolute must-haves.

Jonathan Cyprien looks like the best Safety in the draft on tape. The Redskins could be in luck since many rank Kenny Vaccaro of Texas and Matt Elam of Florida higher than Cyprien. However, the FIU product has a long build and plays with good speed and range. If asked to do so, he can effectively cover the entire field. He is a fluid athlete with a physical streak that shows up when asked to play in the box. He has the ability to blanket tight ends in man coverage, and is a solid tackler in run support. If he falls to the second round, the Redskins cannot afford to pass on him. The Safety class in this draft is not as deep as I initially thought, and Cyprien could be their best chance at selecting and immediate starter with the ability to make a big impact on defense.



Darius Slay is perhaps the most underrated player in the draft, but could also rise due to a great Combine peformance. Combine numbers aside, Slay is a flat out playmaker. While Jonathan Banks has been the center of attention, Slay has quietly put his talent on display. He is a long-armed corner with blazing speed and great instincts. The best part about him is that he is a complete corner who displayes tenacity in run support and fluidity in coverage. Slay was also a valuable special teamer at Mississippi State, often playing on kickoff coverage and as a gunner on punt coverage. Slay's versatility makes him an attractive talent to any team. This is another player who could make an immediate impact both on defense and special teams, with the ability to develop into a special Corner. If the Redskins are lucky, he may still be available in the 3rd round.



Menelik Watson is an extremely athletic Right Tackle refuses to be beat in pass protection. While he is a raw player, he is extremely physically gifted while tremendous upside. Watson has long arms and a powerful punch, giving him the ability to handle all types of pass rushers. He especially does a great job of using his length to run outside speed rushes off to create a solid pocket. The power he posseses is evident in his run blocking, as he has the ability to dominate. But his athleticism also allows him to pull with ease and scrape to the second level where he eats up linebackers. While he can get beat across his face trying to scoop on zone runs, this can be fixed with technique. Robert Griffin III is the Redskins' biggest investment, so they cannot pass on Menelik Watson if he is available with the 51st pick.



What if...
Jonathan Cyprien and Menelik Watson are both on the board when the Redskins pick at #51? Very slim chances, as Watson and Cyprien both could rise up draft boards. The Redskins will be fortunate to have one of them availble at #51. However, if the scenario were to come about, it would make for and interesting decision for the franchise. If it were me, I would have to go with Cyprien since the secondary was responsible for a few losses (the first loss against the Giants in particular). The arguement could also be made that Robert Griffin III needs to be protected, so it would be more important to pick Watson. Tough call... and I think it depends on what happens in free agency for the Redskins, if they bring can bring in anyone new at all. In the end, the NFL Draft may be the Redskins best bet to address their needs. Who would you go with in this scenario? Safety, Corner, or Right Tackle? Personally, I think Corner is the deepest position in the draft and can be found outside of the 2nd round.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Evaluating Mayock's Top 5 Safeties

Kenny Vaccaro, Texas - 6'0 215lbs

After going back and looking over a few of Vaccaro's games, I am left with more questions than answers. The best word to describe his play would probably be inconsistent - especially in run support. In the games against Oklahoma State and Kansas State, he took a few bad angles to the ball. Vaccaro also uses inconsistent form in his tackles - somtimes trying to arm tackle and sometimes throwing a shoulder for the big hit. It was a bit tougher to evaluate his cover skills, as Texas used him as a deep safety, a safety in the box, and as a nickel corner in some pass sets. He seemed to perform better when playing closer to the line of scrimmage. When asked to play Cover 2, occupying half of the field seems to be too much groud for him to cover as he is often late with help over the top on deep outside routes. In the game against Kansas State, he blows his coverage because he was peeking in the back field and bit hard on the play action. Touchdown K-State.

Don't get me wrong, Kenny Vaccaro is a decent athlete who shows flashes of good play. But his body stiffness and inconsistency in run support and coverage worry me. Which Kenny Vaccaro are we really getting?


Matt Elam, Florida - 5'10" 208lbs

The game that I first watched of Matt Elam was his game against Florida State. And those first two plays scared the crap out of me... First play - he is on the line of scrimmage playing tight to the formation, and he's double teamed and driven out of bounds on a toss play. Second play - he abandons his zone (and the ILB is also at fault as he does the same), not seeing the crossing receiver which gives up a huge gain. Finally, on the third play, Elam is playing off man, scrapes by a deep pick to intercept an overthrown out route - displaying good man coverage skills and range. As the game continues, his coverage skills appear to be decent, which caused EJ Manuel to have trouble finding and windows. I will note that he rarely appears to be a willing tackler in run support. There is one play in particular where he blitzes, slightly overrunning the the play, but stops and watches the running back break tackles when he could be making an attempt to help bring the ball carrier down.

It looks like Elam played closer to the line of scrimmage as opposed to the deep free safety. Because of the questions I have with his game in run support, I feel he would translate better as a free safety at the next level.


Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International - 6'0 217lbs

After the Senior Bowl, there was a lot of buzz about Jonathan Cyprien out of FIU. Cyprien a surely an athletic specimen who looked impressive in the Senior Bowl practices. His performance  translated to the game, where he diplayed great speed and range as a single high safety and in 2 deep coverage. Cyprien also looked great in run support when playing in the box near the goal line. When he played closer to the line of scrimmage, he was also able to blanket tight ends in man coverage. He also stood out in his game against Louisville, where he again displayed great speed and range. Though he was decent in run support, he did take a bad angle or two, but was able to get good outside leverage when playing on the line of scrimmage to force runs back inside.

Overall, Cyprien looks like a more complete safety than both Elam and Vaccaro. He has far more range in coverage and has good instincts. I see Cyprien being a very good free safety at the next level as he can cover the whole football field.


Eric Reid, LSU - 6'1" 213lbs

From watching his tape against Texas A&M and Alabama, Reid looks like a fairly consisent player in all phases of the game. He is willing and capable in run support, although, he sometimes overruns the gap - giving the back a crease. I love how he does not get beat by play action fakes, keeping himself in good position for run or pass. He was asked to spy on Manziel a few times, nearly coming up with a great interception. However, there are times where Reid seems lost in coverage, allowing crossing routes to find the opening and allowing backs (Trent Richardson) release down the sideline without coverage over the top.

Reid doesn't have the range that Cyprien has, but has decent movement skills and is effective in all aspects of the game. I feel that he could play either safety position at the next level.


Shamarko Thomas, Syracuse - 5'9" 213lbs

Shamarko Thomas is a physical safety who loves to hit and will never shy away from contact. Sometimes his aggression gets the best of him, causing him to miss tackles because he is diving and leaving the ground. In the tape against USC, he was able to blanket Robert Woods for the most part - even at corner for a play. Seems to be decent in coverage, and is fast enough to fly around the field.

I see him at strong safety at the next level, but he will need to improve his angles in run support. Though he is considered short for the position, I believe he is physical enough to handle one on one matchups with tight ends. Thomas is a raw prospect who can be coached into a solid player.

The Best?

While Mike Mayock has both Kenny Vaccaro and Matt Elam ranked ahead of Jonathan Cyprien, I believe Cyprien will be the best of this group at the next level. I was expecting more consistency from Vaccaro and Elam, but their tape (not highlight tape, game tape) did not impress me like I thought it would. Cyprien's length and range make him the type that can play center field at the next level. It will be interesting to see where he gets selected in the draft.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Alfred Morris: The Steal of the 2012 NFL Draft


Fullback? You heard correctly - he said Alfred Morris  would need to make the conversion from running back to fullback to be a successful pro. Looking back on this video, we say, "This guy's insane, Alfred Morris had a great year at running back!" But this is the beauty of the draft! Talent can slip through the cracks simply because of bad forty times or low bench press reps at a combine. While combine testing is an effective way of measuring athletic ability, it does not tell you whether a prospect is a good football player or not. That is why the number 1 most effective tool in evaluating talent is game tape. Take a look at some of Alfred Morris's college film:


Clearly the analyst in the first video allowed combine numbers to cloud his judgement of how Alfred's game would translate at the next level. What do you see? I see the same Alfred Morris that myself and all the other Redskins fans saw all year! He's a powerful runner who explodes through contact and keeps his feet moving while maintaining great balance. It was clear in this second video that Morris has great running vision, as he was quickly able to locate running lanes and cutback lanes. If there was nothing there, he followed the BYOB principle (Be Your Own Blocker). So the tape tells us that Alfred Morris is a strong runner with good vision and balance who does not get tackled by only 1 defender - which ultimately translated to the NFL to look like this:


The tape tells the tale! It is obvious that the same elements we saw from Alfred's college tape showed up on the big stage. In the end, the Redskins used a 6th round draft pick to select the running back who was 2nd in the NFL in rushing (1613 yards) behind only Adrian Peterson. He became the single season rushing yards record record holder for the Redskins... as a rookie. So while you're sitting there looking over the combine numbers, gawking at the 4.3 forties (which I will admit I do as well), remember that the NFL Draft is about finding FOOTBALL PLAYERS. The performance that truly counts is their performance on the football field.

As most Redskins fans know, we do not have a first round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft because we traded it for RG3 - who was well worth the cost because he helped reshape the mindset of the team into that of a champion. It is not a big deal, the Redskins still have 7 selections in the draft and have proven that talent can be found outside of the first round. Thankfully, the Redskins have the benefit of deep safety and corner classes - which are major areas of concern on the roster at the moment. Don't be suprised if the 'Skins end up with 2 starters or more next year from this draft class. The scouts will need to evaluate talent like they did with Alfred Morris, but I remain optimistic the draft will prove to be a successful one for the Redskins.

Mike Mayock's Top 5 Draft Prospects at Each Position

How do you begin to analyze the NFL Draft? First of all, we need some positional rankings so we have somewhere to start. Trusted NFL Scout and Analyst Mike Mayock has released his Post-Combine position rankings. I will eventually be putting together my own rankings, but this is a great place to begin for the first post of the blog! Please feel free to comment and mention other players who deserve consideration. While I am compiling a list of players, I don't want to leave anyone out. Again, these are Mike Mayock's rankings, not my own.

Quarterbacks
  1. Geno Smith - WVU
  2. Matt Barkley - USC
  3. Mike Glennon - N.C. State
  4. Ryan Nassib - Syracuse
  5. Landry Jones - Oklahoma
Running Backs
  1. Eddie Lacy - Alabama
  2. Montee Ball - Wisconsin
  3. Andre Ellington - Clemson
  4. Giovani Bernard - North Carolina
  5. Marcus Lattimore - South Carolina
Wide Receivers
  1. Cordarrelle Patterson - Tennessee
  2. Keenan Allen - California
  3. Tavon Austin - WVU
  4. Quinton Patton - Louisiana Tech
  5. DeAndre Hopkins - Clemson
Tight Ends
  1. Tyler Eifert - Notre Dame
  2. Zach Ertz - Stanford
  3. Gavin Escobar - San Diego State
  4. Travis Kelce - Cincinnati
  5. Vance McDonald - Rice
Offensive Tackles
  1. Luke Joeckel - Texas A&M
  2. Eric Fisher - Central Michigan
  3. Lane Johnson - Oklahoma
  4. DJ Fluker - Alabama
  5. Menelik Watson - FSU & Justin Pugh - Syracuse
Guards
  1. Chance Warmack - Alabama
  2. Jonathan Cooper - North Carolina
  3. Larry Warford - Kentucky
  4. Kyle Long - Oregon
  5. Brian Winters - Kent State
Centers
  1. Travis Frederick - Wisconsin
  2. Brian Schwenke - California
  3. Barrett Jones - Alabama
  4. Khaled Holmes - USC
  5. Braxston Cave - Notre Dame
4-3 Defensive Ends
  1. Bjoern Werner - FSU
  2. Ezekiel Ansah - BYU
  3. Damontrae Moore - Texas A&M
  4. Sam Montgomery - LSU
  5. Tank Carradine - FSU
3-4 Defensive Ends
  1. Star Lotulelei - Utah
  2. Margus Hunt - SMU
  3. Datone Jones - UCLA
  4. Jesse Williams - Alabama
  5. William Gholston - Michigan State
4-3 Outside Linebackers
  1. Jarvis Jones - Georgia
  2. Khaseem Greene - Rutgers
  3. Arthur Brown - Kansas State
  4. Sio Moore - Connecticut
  5. Chase Thomas - Stanford
3-4 Outside Linebackers
  1. Dion Jordan - Oregon
  2. Jamie Collins - Southern Mississippi
  3. Barkevious Mingo - LSU
  4. Michael Buchanan - Illinois
  5. Corey Lemonier - Auburn
Inside Linebackers
  1. Alec Ogletree - Georgia
  2. Manti Te'o - Notre Dame
  3. Kevin Minter - LSU
  4. Kevin Reddick - North Carolina
  5. Kiko Alonso - Oregon
Cornerbacks
  1. Dee Milliner - Alabama
  2. Xavier Rhodes - FSU
  3. Desmond Trufant - Washington
  4. Blidi Wreh-Wilson - Connecticut
  5. B.W. Webb - William & Mary
Safeties
  1. Kenny Vaccaro - Texas
  2. Matt Elam - Florida
  3. Jonathan Cyprien - Florida International
  4. Eric Reid - LSU
  5. Shamarko Thomas - Syracuse