Friday, March 15, 2013

Sleepers of the Draft

Every year, we see talented players slide endlessly into the later rounds of the draft. Some may have had bad combines, suffered from injuries, or played for a smaller school causing them to remain relatively unkown. When given their opportunity, there are a handful of these late-round selections who burst onto the NFL scene and leave scouts saying, "How did we miss this guy?" It happens every year. We had Alfred Morris, Russell Wilson, and Vontaze Burfict reveal their talent of the biggest stage. As a 6th round pick out of small school Florida Atlantic, Morris finished 2nd in the NFL in rushing. Considered to be too short to be an NFL quarterback, Wilson was selected in the 3rd round and quickly established himself as one of the most efficient passers in the league this past year - helping to lead the Seahawks into the playoffs. Burfict was once considered a first round pick, but a bad combine and some negative reviews in the interview process caused his draft stock to plummet. However, he was still picked up by the Bengals as an undrafted free agent and never looked back once he got his opportunity as a starter - tallying over 100 tackles in his rookie campaign. Obviously there were more sleepers than just these three players, but these are some great examples of undervalued players who come up big at the next level. While the first round of the NFL Draft gets the most publicity, valuable picks in the later rounds of the draft help to build a team for the long haul. So who can your team pickup after the 1st round?


QUINTON PATTON - WR - Louisiana Tech

While the bigger receivers like Cordarelle Patterson and Keenan Allen have a lot of hype surrounding them as potential first round picks, Quinton Patton may be the best player in the draft that you've never heard of. At 6-foot 205 pounds, Patton is a quick footed receiver who is an excellent route runner with a knack for making big plays. In his two years as a starter at LA Tech, Patton came down with 183 receptions for 2,594 yards and 24 touchdowns. This small school stud is an aggressive blocker in the open field, and is a master at getting off of press coverage at the line of scrimmage. He uses his feet and hands well to move his defender at the line of scrimmage allowing him enough seperation to develop his route. I urge all readers to watch his game against Texas A&M, in which he tallied 21 receptions and 4 touchdowns:




DJ HARPER - RB - Bosie State

Boise State appears to be quite the running back factory, churning out 1st round selection Doug Martin (aka "Muscle Hamster") of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who had a solid rookie season. But before Doug Martin became the starter at Boise State, he had to play second fiddle to DJ Harper. Martin only got the starting job because Harper tore the ACL in his left knee two years in a row. While this will be red flag to many teams, he has the ability to be a decent back at the next level if he checks out medically. Once considered the fastest player on the Boise State squad, Harper has decent vision and an explosive burst when in the open field. He easily shakes off arm tackles, and his lateral agility make him tough to tackle in the open field. Harper will likely be a very late round selection in the 2013 NFL Draft, but reminds me a lot of DeMarco Murray:



Side Note:

Sitting behind DJ Harper this past season was freshman Jay Ajayi, who is a strong back with suprising lateral quickness and top end speed. At 6 foot 220+ pounds, it makes you wonder how Alabama passed up such a running back prospect. Look for him to have a big year as Boise State's feature back in the 2013 season. He has the talent and build to become a productive NFL back in the future:

Friday, March 8, 2013

With the 51st Pick, the Washington Redskins Select...


 One of these three players:
  1. Jonathan Cyprien - Safety - Florida International
  2. Darius Slay - Conerback - Mississippi State
  3. Menelik Watson - Right Tackle - Florida State

The Washington Redskins find themselves in a tight situation with free agency fast approaching - Tueasday, March 12th - and no cap space to work with. It will take some contract manipulating and possibly some unexpected releases to bring the Redskins under the salary cap (they are currently 3 million over cap). On top of that, the Redskins have no 1st Round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Considering these circumstances, it will be tough to address some of the issues on the roster. Many have expressed their concern with the performance of Tyler Polumbus at Right Tackle, Madeiu Williams at Safety, and both Corners in general. I would have to say that the biggest position of concern would have to be safety, as Madeiu Williams got beat often (to put it nicely). However, if any one of the players above is available when the Redskins pick in the 2nd Round, they are absolute must-haves.

Jonathan Cyprien looks like the best Safety in the draft on tape. The Redskins could be in luck since many rank Kenny Vaccaro of Texas and Matt Elam of Florida higher than Cyprien. However, the FIU product has a long build and plays with good speed and range. If asked to do so, he can effectively cover the entire field. He is a fluid athlete with a physical streak that shows up when asked to play in the box. He has the ability to blanket tight ends in man coverage, and is a solid tackler in run support. If he falls to the second round, the Redskins cannot afford to pass on him. The Safety class in this draft is not as deep as I initially thought, and Cyprien could be their best chance at selecting and immediate starter with the ability to make a big impact on defense.



Darius Slay is perhaps the most underrated player in the draft, but could also rise due to a great Combine peformance. Combine numbers aside, Slay is a flat out playmaker. While Jonathan Banks has been the center of attention, Slay has quietly put his talent on display. He is a long-armed corner with blazing speed and great instincts. The best part about him is that he is a complete corner who displayes tenacity in run support and fluidity in coverage. Slay was also a valuable special teamer at Mississippi State, often playing on kickoff coverage and as a gunner on punt coverage. Slay's versatility makes him an attractive talent to any team. This is another player who could make an immediate impact both on defense and special teams, with the ability to develop into a special Corner. If the Redskins are lucky, he may still be available in the 3rd round.



Menelik Watson is an extremely athletic Right Tackle refuses to be beat in pass protection. While he is a raw player, he is extremely physically gifted while tremendous upside. Watson has long arms and a powerful punch, giving him the ability to handle all types of pass rushers. He especially does a great job of using his length to run outside speed rushes off to create a solid pocket. The power he posseses is evident in his run blocking, as he has the ability to dominate. But his athleticism also allows him to pull with ease and scrape to the second level where he eats up linebackers. While he can get beat across his face trying to scoop on zone runs, this can be fixed with technique. Robert Griffin III is the Redskins' biggest investment, so they cannot pass on Menelik Watson if he is available with the 51st pick.



What if...
Jonathan Cyprien and Menelik Watson are both on the board when the Redskins pick at #51? Very slim chances, as Watson and Cyprien both could rise up draft boards. The Redskins will be fortunate to have one of them availble at #51. However, if the scenario were to come about, it would make for and interesting decision for the franchise. If it were me, I would have to go with Cyprien since the secondary was responsible for a few losses (the first loss against the Giants in particular). The arguement could also be made that Robert Griffin III needs to be protected, so it would be more important to pick Watson. Tough call... and I think it depends on what happens in free agency for the Redskins, if they bring can bring in anyone new at all. In the end, the NFL Draft may be the Redskins best bet to address their needs. Who would you go with in this scenario? Safety, Corner, or Right Tackle? Personally, I think Corner is the deepest position in the draft and can be found outside of the 2nd round.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Evaluating Mayock's Top 5 Safeties

Kenny Vaccaro, Texas - 6'0 215lbs

After going back and looking over a few of Vaccaro's games, I am left with more questions than answers. The best word to describe his play would probably be inconsistent - especially in run support. In the games against Oklahoma State and Kansas State, he took a few bad angles to the ball. Vaccaro also uses inconsistent form in his tackles - somtimes trying to arm tackle and sometimes throwing a shoulder for the big hit. It was a bit tougher to evaluate his cover skills, as Texas used him as a deep safety, a safety in the box, and as a nickel corner in some pass sets. He seemed to perform better when playing closer to the line of scrimmage. When asked to play Cover 2, occupying half of the field seems to be too much groud for him to cover as he is often late with help over the top on deep outside routes. In the game against Kansas State, he blows his coverage because he was peeking in the back field and bit hard on the play action. Touchdown K-State.

Don't get me wrong, Kenny Vaccaro is a decent athlete who shows flashes of good play. But his body stiffness and inconsistency in run support and coverage worry me. Which Kenny Vaccaro are we really getting?


Matt Elam, Florida - 5'10" 208lbs

The game that I first watched of Matt Elam was his game against Florida State. And those first two plays scared the crap out of me... First play - he is on the line of scrimmage playing tight to the formation, and he's double teamed and driven out of bounds on a toss play. Second play - he abandons his zone (and the ILB is also at fault as he does the same), not seeing the crossing receiver which gives up a huge gain. Finally, on the third play, Elam is playing off man, scrapes by a deep pick to intercept an overthrown out route - displaying good man coverage skills and range. As the game continues, his coverage skills appear to be decent, which caused EJ Manuel to have trouble finding and windows. I will note that he rarely appears to be a willing tackler in run support. There is one play in particular where he blitzes, slightly overrunning the the play, but stops and watches the running back break tackles when he could be making an attempt to help bring the ball carrier down.

It looks like Elam played closer to the line of scrimmage as opposed to the deep free safety. Because of the questions I have with his game in run support, I feel he would translate better as a free safety at the next level.


Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International - 6'0 217lbs

After the Senior Bowl, there was a lot of buzz about Jonathan Cyprien out of FIU. Cyprien a surely an athletic specimen who looked impressive in the Senior Bowl practices. His performance  translated to the game, where he diplayed great speed and range as a single high safety and in 2 deep coverage. Cyprien also looked great in run support when playing in the box near the goal line. When he played closer to the line of scrimmage, he was also able to blanket tight ends in man coverage. He also stood out in his game against Louisville, where he again displayed great speed and range. Though he was decent in run support, he did take a bad angle or two, but was able to get good outside leverage when playing on the line of scrimmage to force runs back inside.

Overall, Cyprien looks like a more complete safety than both Elam and Vaccaro. He has far more range in coverage and has good instincts. I see Cyprien being a very good free safety at the next level as he can cover the whole football field.


Eric Reid, LSU - 6'1" 213lbs

From watching his tape against Texas A&M and Alabama, Reid looks like a fairly consisent player in all phases of the game. He is willing and capable in run support, although, he sometimes overruns the gap - giving the back a crease. I love how he does not get beat by play action fakes, keeping himself in good position for run or pass. He was asked to spy on Manziel a few times, nearly coming up with a great interception. However, there are times where Reid seems lost in coverage, allowing crossing routes to find the opening and allowing backs (Trent Richardson) release down the sideline without coverage over the top.

Reid doesn't have the range that Cyprien has, but has decent movement skills and is effective in all aspects of the game. I feel that he could play either safety position at the next level.


Shamarko Thomas, Syracuse - 5'9" 213lbs

Shamarko Thomas is a physical safety who loves to hit and will never shy away from contact. Sometimes his aggression gets the best of him, causing him to miss tackles because he is diving and leaving the ground. In the tape against USC, he was able to blanket Robert Woods for the most part - even at corner for a play. Seems to be decent in coverage, and is fast enough to fly around the field.

I see him at strong safety at the next level, but he will need to improve his angles in run support. Though he is considered short for the position, I believe he is physical enough to handle one on one matchups with tight ends. Thomas is a raw prospect who can be coached into a solid player.

The Best?

While Mike Mayock has both Kenny Vaccaro and Matt Elam ranked ahead of Jonathan Cyprien, I believe Cyprien will be the best of this group at the next level. I was expecting more consistency from Vaccaro and Elam, but their tape (not highlight tape, game tape) did not impress me like I thought it would. Cyprien's length and range make him the type that can play center field at the next level. It will be interesting to see where he gets selected in the draft.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Alfred Morris: The Steal of the 2012 NFL Draft


Fullback? You heard correctly - he said Alfred Morris  would need to make the conversion from running back to fullback to be a successful pro. Looking back on this video, we say, "This guy's insane, Alfred Morris had a great year at running back!" But this is the beauty of the draft! Talent can slip through the cracks simply because of bad forty times or low bench press reps at a combine. While combine testing is an effective way of measuring athletic ability, it does not tell you whether a prospect is a good football player or not. That is why the number 1 most effective tool in evaluating talent is game tape. Take a look at some of Alfred Morris's college film:


Clearly the analyst in the first video allowed combine numbers to cloud his judgement of how Alfred's game would translate at the next level. What do you see? I see the same Alfred Morris that myself and all the other Redskins fans saw all year! He's a powerful runner who explodes through contact and keeps his feet moving while maintaining great balance. It was clear in this second video that Morris has great running vision, as he was quickly able to locate running lanes and cutback lanes. If there was nothing there, he followed the BYOB principle (Be Your Own Blocker). So the tape tells us that Alfred Morris is a strong runner with good vision and balance who does not get tackled by only 1 defender - which ultimately translated to the NFL to look like this:


The tape tells the tale! It is obvious that the same elements we saw from Alfred's college tape showed up on the big stage. In the end, the Redskins used a 6th round draft pick to select the running back who was 2nd in the NFL in rushing (1613 yards) behind only Adrian Peterson. He became the single season rushing yards record record holder for the Redskins... as a rookie. So while you're sitting there looking over the combine numbers, gawking at the 4.3 forties (which I will admit I do as well), remember that the NFL Draft is about finding FOOTBALL PLAYERS. The performance that truly counts is their performance on the football field.

As most Redskins fans know, we do not have a first round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft because we traded it for RG3 - who was well worth the cost because he helped reshape the mindset of the team into that of a champion. It is not a big deal, the Redskins still have 7 selections in the draft and have proven that talent can be found outside of the first round. Thankfully, the Redskins have the benefit of deep safety and corner classes - which are major areas of concern on the roster at the moment. Don't be suprised if the 'Skins end up with 2 starters or more next year from this draft class. The scouts will need to evaluate talent like they did with Alfred Morris, but I remain optimistic the draft will prove to be a successful one for the Redskins.

Mike Mayock's Top 5 Draft Prospects at Each Position

How do you begin to analyze the NFL Draft? First of all, we need some positional rankings so we have somewhere to start. Trusted NFL Scout and Analyst Mike Mayock has released his Post-Combine position rankings. I will eventually be putting together my own rankings, but this is a great place to begin for the first post of the blog! Please feel free to comment and mention other players who deserve consideration. While I am compiling a list of players, I don't want to leave anyone out. Again, these are Mike Mayock's rankings, not my own.

Quarterbacks
  1. Geno Smith - WVU
  2. Matt Barkley - USC
  3. Mike Glennon - N.C. State
  4. Ryan Nassib - Syracuse
  5. Landry Jones - Oklahoma
Running Backs
  1. Eddie Lacy - Alabama
  2. Montee Ball - Wisconsin
  3. Andre Ellington - Clemson
  4. Giovani Bernard - North Carolina
  5. Marcus Lattimore - South Carolina
Wide Receivers
  1. Cordarrelle Patterson - Tennessee
  2. Keenan Allen - California
  3. Tavon Austin - WVU
  4. Quinton Patton - Louisiana Tech
  5. DeAndre Hopkins - Clemson
Tight Ends
  1. Tyler Eifert - Notre Dame
  2. Zach Ertz - Stanford
  3. Gavin Escobar - San Diego State
  4. Travis Kelce - Cincinnati
  5. Vance McDonald - Rice
Offensive Tackles
  1. Luke Joeckel - Texas A&M
  2. Eric Fisher - Central Michigan
  3. Lane Johnson - Oklahoma
  4. DJ Fluker - Alabama
  5. Menelik Watson - FSU & Justin Pugh - Syracuse
Guards
  1. Chance Warmack - Alabama
  2. Jonathan Cooper - North Carolina
  3. Larry Warford - Kentucky
  4. Kyle Long - Oregon
  5. Brian Winters - Kent State
Centers
  1. Travis Frederick - Wisconsin
  2. Brian Schwenke - California
  3. Barrett Jones - Alabama
  4. Khaled Holmes - USC
  5. Braxston Cave - Notre Dame
4-3 Defensive Ends
  1. Bjoern Werner - FSU
  2. Ezekiel Ansah - BYU
  3. Damontrae Moore - Texas A&M
  4. Sam Montgomery - LSU
  5. Tank Carradine - FSU
3-4 Defensive Ends
  1. Star Lotulelei - Utah
  2. Margus Hunt - SMU
  3. Datone Jones - UCLA
  4. Jesse Williams - Alabama
  5. William Gholston - Michigan State
4-3 Outside Linebackers
  1. Jarvis Jones - Georgia
  2. Khaseem Greene - Rutgers
  3. Arthur Brown - Kansas State
  4. Sio Moore - Connecticut
  5. Chase Thomas - Stanford
3-4 Outside Linebackers
  1. Dion Jordan - Oregon
  2. Jamie Collins - Southern Mississippi
  3. Barkevious Mingo - LSU
  4. Michael Buchanan - Illinois
  5. Corey Lemonier - Auburn
Inside Linebackers
  1. Alec Ogletree - Georgia
  2. Manti Te'o - Notre Dame
  3. Kevin Minter - LSU
  4. Kevin Reddick - North Carolina
  5. Kiko Alonso - Oregon
Cornerbacks
  1. Dee Milliner - Alabama
  2. Xavier Rhodes - FSU
  3. Desmond Trufant - Washington
  4. Blidi Wreh-Wilson - Connecticut
  5. B.W. Webb - William & Mary
Safeties
  1. Kenny Vaccaro - Texas
  2. Matt Elam - Florida
  3. Jonathan Cyprien - Florida International
  4. Eric Reid - LSU
  5. Shamarko Thomas - Syracuse