Thursday, April 25, 2013

Scott's '13 Official First Round Mock

I will introduce myself more later on but it's a pleasure to be invited by Derek to be a contributor to NFL Reverse. I am a native of Cleveland, Ohio and am a huge Browns fan; I'm also a follower of the Detroit Lions. You will see most of my articles focus on the Browns, Lions, and both the AFC/NFC North divisions. I was a two year starter on the offensive line at George Mason University, where I was an unanimous ICFF First-Team All-American, representing the Patriots.

I've done my best not to do 50 mock drafts this offseason, I have sat back, watched and waited. As a Browns fan, I've been more focused on the hope brought to the franchise by new owner Jimmy Haslam... and now his FBI investigation (the sad life of a Browns fan).

Here is my official 2013 NFL Mock Draft (note: trades are not considered):

  1. Kansas City: OT Eric Fisher (Central Michigan)
  2. Jacksonville: OT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M)
  3. Oakland: DT Sharrif Floyd (Florida)
  4. Philadelphia: OT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma)
  5. Detroit: DE Ezekiel Ansah (BYU)
  6. Cleveland: CB Dee Milliner (Alabama)
  7. Arizona: OG Jonathan Cooper (UNC)
  8. Buffalo: WR Tavon Austin (WVU)
  9. New York (Jets): DE Barkevious Mingo (LSU)
  10. Tennessee: DT Star Lotulelei (Utah)
  11. San Diego: OG Chance Warmack (Alabama)
  12. Miami: OT D.J. Fluker (Alabama)
  13. New York (Jets): QB Geno Smith (WVU)
  14. Carolina: DT Sheldon Richardson (Mizzou)
  15. New Orleans: DT Sylvester Williams (UNC)
  16. St. Louis: S Kenny Vaccaro (Texas)
  17. Pittsburgh: OLB Jarvis Jones (UGA)
  18. Dallas: S Jonathan Cyprien (FIU)
  19. New York (Giants): DE Bjoern Werner (FSU)
  20. Chicago: LB Arthur Brown (K-State)
  21. Cincinnati: RB Eddie Lacy (Alabama)
  22. St. Louis: FS Eric Reid (LSU)
  23. Minnesota: WR Justin Hunter (Tennessee)
  24. Indianapolis: CB Xavier Rhodes (FSU)
  25. Minnesota: ILB Manti Te'o (ND)
  26. Green Bay: TE Tyler Eifert (ND)
  27. Houston: ILB  Kevin Minter (LSU)
  28. Denver: S Matt Elam (Florida)
  29. New England: CB Johnathan Banks (MSST)
  30. Atlanta: CB Desmond Trufant (Washington)
  31. San Francisco: DE Cornellius Carradine (FSU)
  32. Baltimore: CB Jamar Taylor (Boise St)
I'm sure I'll be increasingly wrong as the draft goes on and trades will definitely be my undoing! As long as the Browns take Milliner, I will be happy!

First round mock draft

With the draft just hours away, let's compile another mock draft. This will probably be the 1,383,493rd mock draft this year (and hopefully the one that predicts every pick). Like most drafts, this draft will probably see its fair share of trades. So as an added element, not only will I be predicting picks, but trades as well. You can have millions of mock drafts, but if they don't include teams trading picks with other teams, none of them will be correct. Let's get this party started!

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan - I think Kansas city has done it's fair share of trying to trade this pick but will ultimately fail to produce a trade. Other teams may not deem any of the top talent in this draft worthy for the 1st overall pick. The Chiefs are engaged in discussions with the Miami Dolphins in a trade that would send starting left tackle Branden Albert to the Dolphins.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M - If the Jaguars want to succeed next season they'll need to protect their quarterback. Joeckel will not only be able to protect his quarterbacks blind side, but help Maurice Jones-Drew in the rushing game - adding to their strongest aspect of their offense.

3. Oakland Raiders: (Trading pick to Miami Dolphins): Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma - The dolphins could sit tight at where they're at and add a corner, or another tackle but they highly covet the former quarterback. If they want him they'll have to trade up to due his rising draft stock.

4. Philadelphia Eagles: Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon - This pick was a bit of a head scratcher. The Eagles let both of their starting corners go so Dee Milliner makes sense here. With Jordan being coached under current head coach Chip Kelly, the Eagles decide to scoop him up now. With todays NFL it seems that the teams having the most success with their pass rush are the teams rotating defensive lineman.

5. Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama - The Lions' best asset is their offensive passing attack. In order to get the ball back in the hands of Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford, they'll need to be able to turn the ball over on defense. Their Defensive line and pass rush is pretty solid, but they'll need some help on the back end of their defense. Milliner makes perfect sense with this pick.

6. Cleveland Browns: Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU - Barkevious Mingo could make sense here but I think the general consensus on Ansah is that he's a prospect with huge upside, though he'll have to shed a few pounds to be a stand up 3-4 OLB. Geno Smith could aslo make sense here, but with Jason Campbell on the team, that may not happen.

7. Arizona Cardinals: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama - The Cardinals weren't able to pass the ball or rush the ball that effective last season. Their offense was pretty much inept. They need some help up front in the trenches. Geno Smith could also make sense here, but the need for a solid offensive lineman is a high priority. They'll probably select a QB in a later round.

8. Buffalo Bills: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia - The Bills have expressed that they'd like to take Austin. It could be a ploy to have another team trade up and select him, but they truly do need another weapon in their air attack. Tavon Austin paired with CJ Spiller and Steve Johnson could be deadly.

9. New York Jets: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU - The Jets make Mingo their first pick. With Revis gone and their pass rush not being up to par, they need help in the pass rush department.

10. Tennessee Titans: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina - Adding a good quality offensive guard will help keep Jake Locker from scrambling so much and help to keep him up right. Not to mention they'll need a good offensive line to turn Chris Johnson back into CJ2K

11. San Diego Chargers: Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee - This could be a make or break year for Phillip Rivers. He can't do it alone, and hee'll need some help with the amount of talent at the position right now.

12. Miam dolphins: (pick traded to Oakland Raiders): Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida - Many teams in this draft could use additional draft picks. The Oakland Raiders did themselves a favor and were still able to  land their man.

13. New York Jets: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia - I didn't think the Jets would actually trade up to the 5th overall pick to select Sanchez years ago. I like Sanchez and wish him success, but the truth of the matter is he's struggled over the past couple of years. A new quarterback for the franchise after Sanchez's struggles is warranted. Maybe they don't pick a QB this year, but if Rex Ryan wants to save his job, he'll need some success with his offense.

14. Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah - The panthers are loaded on offense so the only logical pick would be on the defensive side. A corner or safety could make sense here, but I think they go with the best available player. That player is Lotulelei.

15. New Orleans Saints: Jarvis Jones,  OLB, Georgia - The Saints will look for defensive help with their first pick. That defensive help will be in the form of Jones.

16. St. Louis Rams: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas - Vaccaro has shown the ability to be a safety that can stuff the run, cover deep, and line up on slot receivers. The Rams would love to have a player with his versatility, though his 40 time of 4.62 at the NFL scouting combine was a bit of a disappointment. Never the less, the Rams could use his services in their secondary.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State - With the departure of Keenan Lewis to the Arizona Cardinals and Ike Taylor on the other side of 30, a cornerback makes sense with their first round pick. William Gay isn't the corner they want starting opposite Taylor so they look to improve their secondary with the addition of Rhodes. He's a bigger corner with good speed and can play in press coverage very well.

18. Dallas Cowboys: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri - The cowboys are changing their defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and they'll need a DT that can play in their defensive scheme. Sheldon Richardson is pretty athletic for the position with this pick the Cowboys will go defensive tackle.

19. New York Giants: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame - Alec Ogletree is still on the board and they could easily choose to draft him, but I think his off field actions will scare them away. Martellus Bennett decided to sign with the Bears and for as long as Eli Manning has been in New York, he's had a solid Tight End to be his security blanket. Eifert has preformed well in college, has good size, and has tested well at the combine. It appears that he'll test well with the G men as well.

20. Chicago Bears: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia - His off field woes are enough to scare teams away, but the Bears could use some athleticism at the LB spot. The signing of DJ Williams isn't enough to have the Bears not select a LB. Urlacher played safety before they turned him into a pro bowl LB. Ogle tree is also a converted safety and has produced in college footballs toughest conference.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama - The Cincinnati Bengals are sitting pretty on both sides of the ball. They could go safety with this pick, but the more pressing need is at the running back spot. Lacy may not have tested well in front of representatives from NFL teams, but he'll be the back that the Bengals are looking for.

22. St. Louis Rams: (Trading pick to the Atlanta Falcons): Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington - Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes are no longer part of their defense. They'll need a quality secondary if they want to make it back to the playoffs.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame - A linebacker that's actually a finalist for the Heisman Memorial Trophy? That can only be indicative of one thing, this kid must really be able to ball.

24. Indianapolis Colts: Robert Woods, WR, USC - Woods appears to be the second coming of Reggie Wayne, so why not have him learn all the intricacies of the position from Wayne himself?

25. Minnesota Vikings: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson - The Vikings will need an upgrade at the wide out position now that Percy Harvin has left for greener pastures.

26. Green Bay Packers: Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida Intl University - At this stage of the draft, there won't be any players that were as dynamic as Charles Woodson when he came out of college, but Cyprien is a safety that has the ability to cover a lot of ground and has good instincts to play the position.

27. Houston Texans: Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee - Since the Texans decided not sign their number 2  receiver, it only seems right that the Texans would pick a receiver at some point in the draft. Hunter could turn into a good number two for them. He has size and speed and just needs a little coaching to help him develop into a legitimate number 1 receiver.

28. Denver Broncos: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina - The UNC product is being pegged as a 3-technique defensive tackle due to his ability to get upfield quickly. I like how he works beyond the line of scrimmage, but many of those disruptions started with him lining up as a 0- or 1-technique.

29. New England Patriots: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State - It's amazing that Werner has slid so far in the draft. The patriots could go wide out here but will look for help at the WR position later in the draft. Werner is the best player available and it only makes sense for the Patriots to take him at this spot.

30. Atlanta Falcons (traded pick to St. Louis Rams): Keenan Allen, WR, California - The Rams are still looking to upgrade their passing attack. Allen is a physical receiver that may not necessarily be the fastest receiver, his physicality compensates for his lack of speed.

31. San Francisco 49ers: Margus Hunt, DE, SMU - Justin Smith can't man their D-line forever. Though  Hunt is still learning the position, his upside appears just as enormous as his stature.

32. Baltimore Ravens: Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State - Some will call Brown small for the position. I won't, and instead think Brown is one of the top talents in this entire class. He has speed to work to the sideline and aggression to take on and beat blockers.

Derek Stein's First Round Mock Draft

The 2013 NFL Draft is one of the hardest to predict, even in the first round. This draft class is filled with more talent than people believe due to the depth of talent. This mock draft is part of a competition with some of the other NFL Reverse writers, and includes potential trades. I know we're all looking forward to see how it all shakes out tonight at 8pm!

Welcome to Radio City Music Hall! With the first pick of the 2013 NFL Draft...

  1. ...the Kansas City Chiefs select: Eric Fisher - OT - Central Michigan
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Joeckel - OT - Texas A&M
  3. *TRADE* Arizona Cardinals (via OAK): Lane Johnson - OT - Oklahoma
  4. Philadelphia Eagles: Dion Jordan - OLB - Oregon
  5. Detroit Lions: Ziggy Ansah - DE - BYU
  6. Cleveland Browns: Dee Milliner - CB - Alabama
  7. Oakland Raiders (via ARI): Sharrif Floyd - DT - Florida
  8. Buffalo Bills: Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia
  9. New York JetsBarkevious Mingo - OLB - LSU
  10. Tennessee Titans: Jonathan Cooper - OG - North Carolina
  11. San Diego Chargers: Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama
  12. Miami Dolphins: D.J. Fluker - OT - Alabama
  13. New York JetsGeno Smith - QB - West Virginia
  14. Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson - DT - Missouri
  15. New Orleans SaintsJarvis Jones - OLB - Georgia
  16. St. Louis Rams: Kenny Vaccaro - S - Texas
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Star Lotulelei - DT - Utah
  18. *TRADE* Chicago Bears (via DAL): Alec Ogletree - ILB - Georgia
  19. New York Giants: Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
  20. Dallas Cowboys: Sylvester Williams - DT - North Carolina
  21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jonathan Cyprien - S - Florida International
  22. St. Louis Rams: Cordarrelle Patterson - WR - Tennessee
  23. Minnesota Vikings: Manti Te'o - ILB - Notre Dame
  24. Indianapolis Colts: Xavier Rhodes - CB - Florida State
  25. Minnesota Vikings: Datone Jones - DL - UCLA
  26. *TRADE* Philadelphia Eagles (via GB): EJ Manuel - QB - Florida State
  27. Houston Texans: DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson
  28. Denver Broncos: Bjoern Werner - DE - Florida State
  29. New England Patriots: Matt Elam - S - Florida
  30. Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Trufant - CB - Washington
  31. San Franciso 49ers: Margus Hunt - DE - SMU
  32. *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (via BAL): Matt Barkley - QB - USC
I believe that there will be a run on offensive tackles with the first 3 picks. From there, it's almost a toss up as to what will happen. This is by far one of the most unpredictable drafts so it was difficult to put together. It was tough leaving DJ Hayden out of the first round, but I just didn't see where he fit in anywhere in this mock. If any corner will drop out of the first round, it will be Hayden due to the fact that his injury gave us a smaller sample size of play than most of the other corners. It will be interesting to see what really happens, I'm expecting a lot of trades.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Why a Darrelle Revis Trade Should Happen

 
 
Arguably the biggest story besides the upcoming NFL Draft is what will become of Darrelle Revis. It appears as though the All-Pro corner's time in the big apple could be coming to a close, a prospect that has elicited a wide range of opinions from analysts and fans alike.
 
Although there are several possibilities as far as how this issue will pan out, there is one thing that is for certain: The Jets should trade Darrelle Revis.
 
At first glance, this seems counterintuitive. After their disasterous 2012 campaign, it seens as though the Jets can ill afford to let any talent walk out the door. And let's be clear here; we're not talking about just any talent. We're talking about one of the (if not the) best corners in the game, a true "shutdown corner" at a time in history where the term is almost nonexistant. And in today's pass-happy NFL, where receivers are allowed to roam the secondary untethered and quarterbacks are wearing figurative red jerseys, a marquee talent at corner is something that every team looks for.
 
And although Revis has just 19 career interceptions in his six-year pro career, this is often an attribute of a great corner. Quarterbacks are afraid to throw to Revis' side, opting instead to throw in the direction of the other corner a majority of the time. Revis doesn't get beat too often, at least not when healthy.
 
So why should the Jets give away Revis?
 
This has more to do with Revis' attitude and the Jets' ineptitude than anything else.
 
Revis is locked up in contract through the end of the 2013 season, and has made it clear that he is not a lock to return, what with constant holdouts and squabbles with upper management. So when you look at the situation, the correct course of action becomes obvious. They have no choice but to trade him. After all, why would the Jets let Revis walk away for free next year (or a mere compensatory pick) when they could trade him now and get much more for him?
 
It would be different if the Jets were contenders. But with the backward step they took last season, nobody outside of New York (and probably not even inside of it, for that matter) thinks that they even have a realistic shot at winning this year. They are a circus act whose faults were forgivable when the on-field success was there. But they have been exposed for what they are: a bad football team with countless distractions and several backup-caliber quarterbacks competing for the starting spot. 
 
Why would either party be against such a trade?
 
The obvious issue here is Revis' health. Revis makes a living with his change-of-direction skills and his speed, both of which could be compromised by the serious ACL injury he suffered in 2012. But we should assume in 2013 that any player who undergoes a procedure as commonplace as ACL surgery should be back and better than ever in short time. An injury that once ended promising careers (Gale sayers, anyone?) is now treated as little more than a broken ankle.
 
Obviously, selling the farm for a guy who is less than a year removed from knee surgery is something that has kept teams away from the prospect of making an offer. But Tampa Bay seems to have looked past that issue to see the big picture. A Bucs defense that ranked dead last against the pass in 2012 (297.4 yards/game) would benefit greatly from not having to worry about an entire side of the field. With the Tampa 2 defense in place, it would take some of the pressure off of Revis initially; in that scheme, safeties are largely placed in the most exposed position while corners are free to roam without having to worry about sticking on a man like glue. But Revis is a cerebral player who would be beneficial in any scheme.
 
Another reason why the Jets might be hesitant to give away Revis would be the Mike Wallace signing by Miami. With a deep threat like Wallace lining up against Jets cornerbacks twice a year, it would be nice to have someone who can match him, if not stride-for-stride, then close.
 
Overall impact
 
This Jets team is much further away from the playoffs than people give them credit for. Despite the swaths of media attention that this team gets, season after season, they will not go far this year and, although fans hate to admit it, the best thing to do is stockpile picks for the future. And a move could come soon with the Draft being a mere week away.
 
Hopefully GM John Idzik can do what his predecesor couldn't do: avoid the cat-and-mouse games and make the trade.